Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 11.559967 13.245088 15.055639 17.141477 19.473845 21.997185 24.929246
2025-10-26 8.844853 11.081551 13.669629 16.868916 20.699466 25.119661 30.586083
2025-11-02 7.565058 10.040125 13.042682 16.922015 21.766667 27.579914 35.041768
2025-11-09 6.606201 9.239377 12.573040 17.053203 22.859618 30.067977 39.621999
2025-11-16 5.805030 8.506377 12.057726 16.997465 23.607940 32.056693 43.563146
2025-11-23 5.114763 7.830905 11.529712 16.840876 24.160074 33.764934 47.169974
2025-11-30 4.630796 7.379716 11.244778 16.955775 25.034585 35.886744 51.361612
2025-12-07 4.325564 7.148697 11.234372 17.428038 26.395665 38.692471 56.560909
2025-12-14 3.871389 6.644023 10.777838 17.210882 26.747460 40.098880 59.869744
2025-12-21 3.349598 5.978970 10.021948 16.485353 26.300232 40.333377 61.512783
2025-12-28 3.166146 5.835629 10.044250 16.919930 27.563627 43.038309 66.747163
2026-01-04 2.974936 5.659158 9.996074 17.232548 28.645272 45.507214 71.716497
2026-01-11 2.705244 5.328546 9.682623 17.116827 29.080157 47.064605 75.453864
2026-01-18 2.451107 4.999925 9.345654 16.936926 29.398187 48.452104 78.986313
2026-01-25 2.260285 4.764771 9.143538 16.956275 30.018255 50.304353 83.263685
2026-02-01 2.108514 4.586521 9.023594 17.100192 30.837460 52.484924 88.109041
2026-02-08 1.939800 4.358234 8.795887 17.039758 31.307931 54.124245 92.157585
2026-02-15 1.773876 4.117973 8.526414 16.884487 31.602991 55.483462 95.798048
2026-02-22 1.659869 3.970691 8.415294 16.999034 32.352957 57.591193 100.683549
2026-03-01 1.600299 3.930558 8.501570 17.472570 33.737911 60.776751 107.395786
2026-03-08 1.462604 3.709511 8.223199 17.254849 33.897839 61.938185 110.847581
2026-03-15 1.281883 3.373883 7.692825 16.527735 33.110342 61.475316 111.599988
2026-03-22 1.238392 3.343232 7.770407 16.963270 34.433032 64.620973 118.434408